How Do You Solve A Problem Like Jeremy

Hard truths. In essence that is what the tangle for Labour has now become. I wrote here only days ago of how the party I have supported since my teenage years had become disconnected from the people that it sees as its core supporters, less a brilliant piece of incisive political assessment on my part and more an obvious glaring fact to anyone paying more than cursory attention to the situation. It has been there in the language, we 'hung on' in local elections, we should 'stop moping' over the EU referendum according to our leader. We should get behind the democratically elected leader, the overwhelming choice of members and supporters, we should ignore the slide and collapses and lack of any real sense of direction, bunker down, blame Laura Kuennsberg and the Murdoch press and then.....what?

For the simple truth is that Jeremy Corbyn will only ever win an election to be leader of the Labour Party. For some on my timelines that seems to be enough. Control of a dying entity trumps the opportunity to create real, lasting change in the country. Those cadres so keen on emphasising their loyalty to the leader increasingly remind me of diehards throughout history who fail to see that the game is up with the people because their people are self referencing and removed from reality. When the PLP, the people whose role is to make Labour an electable force, to fulfil the basic reason for a political party, to win elections and govern, dare to point out that a Corbyn led Labour cannot and will not affect such a change, they are derided as traitors and scum. This is the language of the fundamentalist. This is the fragmentation of theory, the race to be ideologically pure over the race to be significant, that has been the downfall of the left throughout history. It did for Ramsay MacDonald,  it ruined Labour throughout the 80s and its back again in all its glory.

Anyone can see that Labour is assailed from both sides. In Scotland the SNP took their socially driven policies, added a dash of anti-Westminster and wiped them out. In the rest of the UK UKIP took their working class credentials, went into communities and talked untruths to them in their own language and are rapidly becoming the voice of the people. There has been plenty of time yet no sign that a Corbyn led Labour party can deal with these mortal threats. What we have had is a 'new approach' to politics that retained its novelty for weeks and lacked bite from that very first Prime Minister's Questions, a poorly executed attempt to reset the dial that ended in a 'will this do' shrug and that increasingly tiresome response that blames our own side for plots and destabilistaion when anyone dares to suggest that a country on its knees requires more than reading out letters sent in from John from Grimsby to sieze the agenda and put us back in the frame.

For, outside of the MP driven campaigns like Stella Creasy's pursuit of pay day loan sharks, what has this New Old Labour delivered? What will it be remembered for? Fights over Trident, throwing Mao's Little Red Book at the Chancellor, failing to recognise that a dress code for public events might actually be a small price to pay to rescue the country from the worst excesses of right wing Toryism. Sitting on the sidelines shouting about purity whilst all around it chaos. And now, the most lacklustre performance by a leader in a campaign of international importance that saw swathes of Labour areas fall to what was, essentially, a pro UKIP vote. The enduring narrative of Corbyn's leadership is the wrong approach at the wrong time for the wrong reasons. Why is anyone surprised that MP's are at breaking point? Like the Leave voters of the post industrial areas of the UK, what exactly have they got to lose?

This is now a battle for a viable Labour party. Members and supporters need to consider whether they want a Labour party that is a real force against what is coming, probably the most right wing administration I have ever seen in my life, or a Labour party that retreats to London and liberal major cities to eke out its dying days in ethical purity and declining influence. Like many, I voted for Corbyn. Like (I hope) many I now see my mistake. When we have created a fairer society the politics that Jeremy stands for can become our goal, for now we are in a street fight and that requires more than thought, it requires action. 

The 'progressive left' still not learning how to be King of the North

Echo chambers. My timeline this morning is full of Remainers shouting abuse as the 'stupid','racist' leavers who have taken us (eventually) out of the EU. I get the anger, I feel it of course, but the left are not going to win any influence and power if they carry on like this.

Take Scotland out of the results and the pattern is obvious. The rest of the country hates London. They hate London because they feel it drives an agenda that doesn't give a fuck about them, that welcomes cheap Eastern European labour into the UK to drive the profits of the city, that sits on their stupid house prices and uses that equity to draw up the ladder of oppoprtunity for them and their children and deny it to others, that looks down their noses at their provincial concerns about immigration and dirty jobs and England flags. It's not even necessarily about race anymore, plenty of media have found black and Asian voices that are pro leave. They also hate Leeds and Manchester but not quite as much, although Manchester is getting there fast. Blame the BBC effect and gentrification of Didsbury, the London effect writ small.

And be under no illusion. Labour is now the party of the metropolis. In Wales, the North West, the North East and increasingly the Midlands, Labour is dying.

These people's concerns are totally distinct and, at times, opposite to those of Labour as these people see it. Plenty of non London Labour MPs have been sounding warning bells about the shift in attitude outside the capital amongst previously staunch left support. Little or nothing has been done to help them.

I get it. In 1989 I was on the other side of this fence. The North had been ravaged by Thatcher and, for cereal cafe cretins and artisan bread substitute yuppies with brick phones and champagne flutes. We wanted their world raised as ours had already been. We wanted them to taste the pain and poverty that we suffered. When the gales hit the South East we were, I am ashamed to say, happy. Any discomfort to them was a kind of victory for us.

To an extent, we who class ourselves under the left banner are all complicate in this. The commentators who write sneering pieces that accuse all Leavers as racists, that ignore the simple fact that if you have nothing, voting for supposed cataclysm isn't a negative and, if you're angry with the 'elite' (and that means all us middle class professional types in major conurbations and the Fabians of London Labour) crashing 'our' world is a revenge strike that tastes sweet. This is only the first blow.

Now we can either move forward or continue to stand in opposition to the rest of the UK. We should be sensible, reasonable people. We claim that our superiority to the Remainers is that we believe in facts and debate and compromise and conversion and understanding. To do that we need to move on from disbelief that what we saw as a straightforward choice has been denied by so many of our fellow citizens. We need to really start to understand the destruction that has been visited on their communities. We need to stop belittling those who talk in coarser language than us and start to find a way to talk with them, to ascertain which of their concerns are real, which contestable, and find a language that engages with them and makes their voices heard. If we don't, far darker forces will.

What does that mean for Labour?

It means accepting that Scotland is lost. To imagine that the Scots will simply put up with another denial of their democratic will in the face of English numerical superiority is fanciful. Even if they don't leave the SNP will continue to wipe Labour out.

It means a recalibration of Labour's core message to what should be its core concerns. Less Trident debate and more hammering of fake austerity. It means attacking as hard as the other side attack. It means using PMQ's to nail the executive, not conduct a Radio 5 phone in. It means real, unified leadership that understands that this is not about class struggle but about what have too often been seen as mundane concerns about ordinary jobs and prospects or difficult concerns about immigration and national identity. It means not sneering at someone putting up a cross of St George when the football is on, about accepting that real people talk in language that isn't pretty and that sometimes you need to put aside righteousness to walk a longer path to real progress. It means being honest that big business is necessary and that tax and spend is not a panacea for the perfect world and that nothing can be achieved with one sweeping moment of revolution. It means leadership that is at the front, confident and unified. It means more as well but that would do for starters.

It means letting people in Hartlepool and Doncaster and Tonypandy and Portsmouth and Dover and everywhere else that we are on their side. That we are the force that will make their life better and protect their rights and provide a future for them and their children and that, crucially, we respect them and value them as citizens of our country.

If not Labour will wither and with it the progressive left. And it starts with all of us that travel under that banner from the hardline socialist to the social democrat. This is not the time to shut the door and talk and fight amongst ourselves; hard as it may be this is the time to do the opposite. To go into the places where we have failed and listen and talk and achieve the change that we all want on terms that benefit all.

Take Me Back To Dear Old Blighty.....

Britain as we know it is about to end. I have always had a certain pride in the British way of doing things despite my politics being internationalist and my original political instincts being more towards the revolutionary great leap forward than the incremental progress over time. As a student of history (not in academia but rather as a leisure pursuit) it has struck me time and time again that after the bloodbaths of the War of The Roses, the Civil Wars and the Jacobite rebellions, England and then Great Britain has avoided the kind of confrontations that have plagued many of our European neighbours and our American cousins. I've always believed that having a long history we have somehow the benefit of being further along a progressive road than many others in how we resolve our differences and deal with the imperfections of a democratic system.

That history of compromise survived many close shaves. In 1819, the Corn Laws led to a mood of revolution that found its expression and repression in the Peterloo massacre, in 1831 Wellington's refusal to back the Reform Bill nearly transformed a London riot into an insurrection, in 1926 Churchill used troops to break the General Strike at London's docks, the Miner's Strike of the 80's played on from the industrial strife of the 70's and threatened more sustained political violence. In all cases progress eventually came from a steady drip of give and take and repositioning of suposedly fixed political positions, albeit shot through with isolated moments of violence. Even the Civil War, that long multiple wars of attrition, ended with some form of compromise that eventually led to the parliamentary democracy we retain to this day.

Whatever the outcome of tomorrow's vote I fear that this cannot be so from hereon in. The levels of vitriol, the sheer entrenchment of both sides, the lack of any respect for facts in the debate have led to a partisan attachment to polarities that will only intensify once the result comes in. From the Brexit side the display is already in place, suggestions of a 'false flag' killing of Jo Cox, likening of expert's opinions to Nazi stooges (Gove, who should know better), dismissal of any institution as being in the pay of the EU, this steady stream of disinformation and innuendo has already planted the idea that a Remain vote will not be a result of democratic will but rather a 'fix' perpetuated on the people by an elite in the pay of the corrupt fatcats of Brussels.

The anger that has seethed in much of the post industrial landscape of the UK so perfectly encapsulated by John Harris in his series of roving video reports for The Guardian over the campaign will not simply dissapate with a Remain vote. It will find other, less democratic, outlets. Already besieged by a feeling that 'voting changes nothing', the voices of these Brexit leader's appointed 'dispossessed' will be further amplified by their loss and, I fear, will find expression in violence.

But Remain are not blameless here. The stoking of economic fears, the suggestion that the Brexit camp are in the grip of an insanity that fails to see the 'truth', the mood music that Brexit = racist are also playing their part, further driving the wedge between the two camps to a point where any kind of post referendum compromise is increasingly hard to imagine.A Brexit vote will see the removal of capital from the UK and the long slog of trade talks that will, inevitably, be shot through with accusations and counter accusations for years to come. Probably (and here I do go with the experts) against a backdrop of falling economic power and global political influence.

Playing into all this is the role of both the mainstream and social media. The former are undoubtedly guilty of stoking a hostile environment in the main, toxic to reasoned debate and shrilly partisan to their cause. It is a wholesale failure of our system that we have allowed our nation to be informed by such a corrupt carrier of 'truth'. The latter has heightened narcissm to hysterical levels, an endless echo chamber of self-justification and kneejerk populism where debate and respect are traded for the vainglorious satisfaction of 'Likes' and 'Retweets' to those who already share your side in the debate. The horror of watching last night's crowning BBC 'debate' in front of an audience more akin to a football crowd than a collection of people wishing to engage with the facts and consider the outcomes was a coming together of these two strands of political poison.

We have talked of a breakdown in the political system of the UK for some time now. Perhaps your personal breaking point was the Iraq War, perhaps the bailout and subsequent blame shift of the 2008 financial crisis, but what is abundantly clear to me is that the fallout is coming now and coming fast.

A dislocation between the professional middle classes and the rest. A blame flowing one way or the other depending on the result.
A wipeout for the Labour Party across swathes of Northern England and Wales to match that of Scotland. A wipeout that I cannot see the party returning from.
The growth of fringe parties leading to a political landscape that we are seeing across Europe and we have so far avoided. But within a first past the post system unused to coalition, a dangerous mix that will further heighten the sense that the democratic process is paralysed and unfit for purpose.
Two Conservative parties divided by a basic ideology of their role in the Nation State unable and unwilling to find a compromise point.
A growth of Scottish demands for withdrawal from Westminster and independence from the UK.
Regional demands for autonomy from Westminster and fragmentation of the unified political system.

Somehow, for all its imperfections and faults I retain an immense amount of pride in being British. I value our way of resolving things, frustrating as it has been, I admire the slow, steady, reasoned path to progress and the ability to contain wildly divergent shades of political thought within a system that allows words to triumph over deeds, sense to to win over emotions. Tomorrow heralds the death knell for that system, I dread to think of what comes next.

The bland assertions of a Culture Secretary aren't enough, nor is the quiet compliance of our commentators

I've written here about this recently but am returning to it because I am, frankly, stunned at the lack of insight being given by the music media to the effects of a Brexit vote on the UK music industry. Last week Music Week reported briefly that Culture Secretary John Wittingdale had deigned to recognise one of the UK's biggest export successes by asserting that 'British music will continue to go on thriving' no matter what the result of the vote on Thursday.

This is, quite palpably, rubbish. Talk to anyone at the coalface of the music industry and they will quickly draw up a list of the issues that a Leave vote will bring to light. In recent weeks I have talked to fellow managers, agents, record company bosses and promoters. All are concerned, none are sure of what the vote would mean should it go for Leave but all are adamant that it won't be good for us.

Chief amongst our worries is the effect on touring Europe. This doesn't just affect the bottom line of bands. Add in management, agents and record companies (all of whom now rely on pipeline income from a percentage share of live income from their signed artists) and we all find ourselves looking at more red tape, less harmonisation, less certainty. Whittingdale seemed (from the scant coverage available) to be of the opinion that Adele's global success seems to equate to an open world of opportunity for UK artists. Again, this is simply not the case.

I've already covered the significant and prohibitve costs of US touring in the previous post but music, almost uniquely amongst UK export industries, is far more wedded to Europe than any other area. Partly this is cost. The budget required to tour Europe is, outside of domestic touring, the lowest option available.

No visas are a massive part of that equation, tax deals add to the increase in bottom line, whether Holland's straighforward regime or the more complicated, but workable, systems that you encounter in Germany, France and elsewhere where you may end up seeing some of the fee return a year later in the shape of withholding tax depending on approach and form filling and other factors. But geography plays an obvious part. A ferry carrying your entire band and crew on one bus is a much more economically sound option than a clutch of flights, whether transatlantic or far far away to Japan or Australia.

We are not like manufacturing where the new markets of China and India are open to us fully. Cultural differences may be eroding but the symbiosis between mainland Europe and the UK in cultural terms has been developed over 1000 years (2000 if you want with the Roman Empire) of shared cultural experiences, music chief amongst those. In time China and India may become big markets for UK music, the green shoots are there (although Chinese visas especially are costly and hard to obtain) but if you want to talk about the markets that matter for profit, for most bands Europe is key.

A Leave vote will not mean an immediate European rejection of UK bands. However, loading of costs and uncertainty into visa regimes, whether in terms of bottom line fees or administration costs to obtain them, will dampen both the desire to book UK acts and also the profits that such touring can deliver back to UK acts and music businesses and, ultimately, to the UK exchequer in tax receipts, not to mention the benefits of the 'soft power' that UK bands deliver on the continent by their popularity and availability. Being outside collective agreement on copyright and intellectual property will excacerbate differences and income. As I have said before import and export tax will add to cost and bear in mind a LOT of UK vinyl is pressed outside of this country.

As a final thought, I recently talked to a prominent booking agent about the US experience for UK touring acts. Although anecdotal, he told me that he knew of three bands that had made a profit touring the USA last year. My experience and those of other industry contacts tallies with that. You tour Europe to grow fanbase and create profit. You spend money to grow fanbase everywhere else unless you are a mega band.

This is a far more complicated argument than one blog post from me can deliver in totality. Further, it requires some more information from the other side as to what they actually envisage being the situation post Brexit. Having searched for such information high and low I see nothing on which I can develop an alternative vision. This is an argument against the wider Leave campaign for me personally but the music industry and the music media really should be holding feet to fires of those arguing for Leave involved in our cultural life before the vote takes place. So far, they have failed. They have three days to rectify the issue.

The Politics of Insanity

As I write a flotilla of Brexit fishermen led by and MEP who failed to attend any of the EU fisheries council meetings of which he was a member is being confronted in The Thames by boats led by Sir Bob Geldof. Meanwhile, The Sun is leading with an invasion of European moths and a reading of the ongoing market slide that declares a Brexit share boost. To add to the sense of fin de siecle carnival Sir Philip Green is hectoring and bullying MPs for having the temerity to ask how he has collapsed a profitable pension scheme and left the public holding the baby.

All of these things are linked by the narcissism of all those involved delivering a hefty blow to the people of the country. The flotilla and counter flotilla do nothing to actually engage anyone with the facts and realities of the coming EU vote, The Sun's front page is a tissue of lies purpoting to be news, sold to the public via the demagoguery of its propreitor and his personal financial and political interests, Philip Green is purely interested in his personal bottom line and hang the consequences. Watching his performance I geneuinely believe that he thinks he has the absolute right to do whatever the fuck he wants.

The 70's sitcom nature of the flotilla is eerily presecient given the massive amount of support for Brexit coming from that generation of post war boomers that seemingly have the UK in their dead hand grip. Having lived through full employment in the 60s, the collapse of British industry in the 70s, given us Thatcherism in the 80s to deliver a death blow to half the country and then spent their salad days assiduously protecting their pensions and freebies in a blatant votes for favours swap that has made them an unassailable force at elections that demand special treatment, their final gift to the UK before they all succumb to dementia is to fuck it completely for those of us whose taxes pay for their priviledges.

It seems appropriate that a generation that sees no shame in selling out everyone else for themselves should be led by a gang of self interested showmen headed by Boris Johnson, a man who has reneged on every public statement he has made and yet somehow become a political force through buffoonery and obfuscation. If and when he achieves his ambition to lead what is left of the Tories I hope that, like Macbeth, he finds his vaulting ambition seriously overreaches itself. Oh for a Macduff.

There is little comfort in the knowledge that, should the country vote Leave, chickens will come home to roost. No doubt once we have excluded European migration and, in the same hand, denied outward looking younger generations the chance to exit the UK and develop an internationalist approach to life, blame group number 2 will be ready to go. That's how narcissim works, it's always the fault of the other. Could be the 'other' immigrants, many conversations over the past month with Leavers have led me to believe that its not just Poles and Romanians that stoke their ire, could even be the generations below them, that especial critique of our 'work ethic' that is rich coming from a load of people who spent half the 70s on strike and most of the 80s and 90's hoovering up council housing and spending the nation's capital whilst demanding no replacements be provided as they enriched themselves on the hard work and political capital of their own parents; the generation that fought to create a peaceful and prosperous continent.

Whatever a Leave outcome, you can be sure of one thing. The boomers won't feel a thing.

Walking headlong into the fire? - Why the Music Industry must REMAIN

I get it. We're all bored with the European question. A succession of Punch and Judy displays, arguments over millions and rebates and housing and a host of other issues reduced to a parade of soundbites. From the Leave side 'Australian Points System' seems to be the equivalent of their Lord's Prayer, from Remain 'Self Administered Recession' their entire sell to the public.

I suppose I should not be massively surprised at the narrowness of the debate. In many ways this is the echo of the Scottish independence vote, the cavaliers of 'Out' versus the grim faced economists of 'In'. With an added dose of perceived xenophobia against non Brits, rather than non Scots this time.

What does surprise me is the lack of any real noise from the music industry. From a personal perspective Brexit is a nightmare writ large. Here's a brief example as to why.

To get a band on tour outside of Europe bands need visas. To get visas there is paperwork, fees and, in some cases, long waits. The most prevalent and extreme examples; the USA, China, Russia, involve a significant amount of administration to gather a host of personal data for each member (for example, the USA wants the names of all applicants parents whether alive or not), hefty fees (again the US side of the process on a standard application is around $3000 if you use immigration lawyers, which is pretty much a no brainer) and a wait that can extend into the horizon. When you panic and realise its all going to be too late you can fast track for another $2500 or so to get things over in 14 days. Then you have to go through the process here which involves more fees to a UK company, a two week wait for an appointment at the US Embassy and a week wait for the passport to be returned.  So if your band is on tour you need two passports so that's another £100 or so per member and more time waiting. Add on paying to get all the members there for appointments and paying crew for half days as they are technically working. And after all this there is no guarantee whatsoever they will approve your application.

And before you can do all of this you need firm offers and contracts from promoters to tour. A band is around £4000 in the hole before they step on the plane.

Contrast this with touring in the EU. A whole continent. The biggest single market in the world. The home to Benicassim, Pukkelpop, Rock am Ring, Primavera, London Calling, Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam, Barcelona etc etc etc. No visa. No need for a list of contracted shows. Free movement, free to add shows, free to play and make money and build fanbase and sell merchandise and records and have a career.

If the UK votes to exit the EU there is absolutely no guarantee that free movement is assured. Given the spread of European festivals and their absolute necessity to the economics of touring for bands from the huge to the modest and it seems incredible to me that the music industry as a whole is not hanging flags from Kensington to Kings Cross offices saying 'the music industry says REMAIN'.

This is just one example of a hit. I could drone on about tax harmonisations, export tarrifs, copyright law (see the dispute around the US take on neighbouring rights as a demonstration of how things can be different), the lack of control of piracy on a colossal scale (talk to anyone who has played Russia), collection of performing rights monies etc etc etc.

The music industry is one of the UK's brightest and most profitable export sectors. The EU is the prime market on a doorstep. Artists, managers, labels, promoters and agents have 13 days to step up out of self interest if nothing else. Why the silence?